2019 CSCE Annual Conference - Laval (Greater Montreal)

2019 CSCE Annual Conference - Laval (Greater Montreal) Conference


Title
Evaluation of variability of precipitation and temperature extremes over Montreal region for present and future climates

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Author(s)
Mr. Hoang Lam Nguyen (Presenter)
Mr. Truong-Huy Nguyen, McGill University
Dr. Van-Thanh-Van Nguyen, McGill University
Abstract

Montreal is the largest city in the province of Quebec and has been known as a sensitive area to extreme weathers such as heavy storm rainfalls and heat waves. Hence, information on the spatial and temporal variations of these extreme weather events (e.g., precipitation and temperature extremes) for current and future climates is important for the planning and design of its urban infrastructures.  This paper aims therefore at performing a detailed evaluation of the variability in time and in space of the daily annual maximum rainfalls and daily extreme temperatures over the Montreal region for the present and future climates using the data provided by two different sources: the Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium (PCIC) and the National Aeronautics Space Administration (NASA) Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP). More specifically, the evaluation was based on the climate simulation outputs from 10 different Global Climate Models (GCMs) downscaled (i) by PCIC to a regional 1/12-degree grid using the BCCAQ and BCSD methods; and (ii) by NASA to a regional 1/4-degree grid. For the present climates, historical data for the 1961-1990 period from observed weather stations located in the Montreal region were used for this evaluation. For the future climates, climate projections corresponding to the RCP 4.5 climate scenario for the 2006 – 2100 period were used. Results of this study have indicated that the outcomes of the downscaling from the Regional Climate Models (RCMs) given by PCIC are more precise than those given by NASA over the study area based on different statistical criteria.