2019 CSCE Annual Conference - Laval (Greater Montreal)

2019 CSCE Annual Conference - Laval (Greater Montreal) Conference


Title
SYSTEM DYNAMICS APPROACH TO ASSESS IMPACTS OF DISASTER RISKS ON INVESTMENT IN INFRASTRUCTURE

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Author
Dr. Jishnu Subedi (Presenter)
Abstract

This paper presents a system dynamics approach to analyze funding allocation for long-term infrastructure growth, reinvestment in infrastructure for maintenance and upgrading and restoration of infrastructure damaged from disasters. The infrastructure comprises of individual infrastructure components, such as bridges, roads, water and sewer lines, oil and gas pipelines, and power lines. As a region or country’s security, well-being, and prosperity rely on the smooth, efficient and optimal functioning of the infrastructure components, continuous investment in infrastructure is critical. Investment in new infrastructure gets more attention compared to that in maintenance and upgrading of existing infrastructure. Reports on existing infrastructure in the United States and Canada show that there is substantial gap in investment on maintenance and upgrading of existing infrastructure. Moreover, risks such as disaster events frequently damage the infrastructure which may require to divert the scarce resources for the restoration of the damaged infrastructure. A system dynamics model is used to investigate sharing of resources between new and existing infrastructure under different investment scenarios. A sensitivity analysis is done to analyze the impact on available funding when disaster events impact the economy and damage the infrastructure. The results show that disasters cause further underinvestment in maintenance and upgrading of the infrastructure. This approach may be useful for all levels of governments to make informed decisions for optimal allocation of resources and for projecting long- term investment and growth scenarios.