2015 CSCE Annual Conference Regina - Building on our Growth Opportunities

2015 CSCE Annual Conference Regina - Building on our Growth Opportunities Conference


Title
Combining Experts’ Decisions and Model Tree Analysis to Select the Optimum Bridge Superstructure Type


Author(s)
Mr. Yassin Al-Delaimi (Presenter)
Dr. Elena Dragomirescu, University of Ottawa
Abstract

Selecting the most suitable bridge superstructure type forms a very sensitive and important aspect for a successful planning in bridges and infrastructure projects. Different types of criteria need to be considered and large set of data must be analyzed in the conceiving stage of bridge design. It always be essential to benefit from experts’ opinions, experiences and advices in order to reach a proper decision. As an efficient tool, the decision tree analysis is largely used to compare, evaluate and analyze different alternatives towards selecting the best scenario option. In this paper, a novel integrated optimization approach is proposed to help selecting the best design alternative. First The Client’s requirements are categorized and given an associated level of importance (IL). Each level of importance shall be given a specific weight. Secondly, the team of experts will evaluate both: i- the probable suitability of each bridge type to meet the design requirements, and ii- the probability of each bridge type to maintain the Client’s requirements. Then a decision-tree-analysis model will integrate the combined distribution of the experts’ decisions with the Client’s requirements to reveal the best scenario for the bridge superstructure type. The proposed model will also conduct a sensitivity analysis to examine how different values of independent variables will impact a specific dependent variable throughout the optimization process. The Implementation of the proposed methodology is illustrated through a case study. The results encourage bridge planners and designers to adopt the proposed model, in bridge and infrastructure projects, as a decision-making tool.