2015 CSCE Annual Conference Regina - Building on our Growth Opportunities Conference
Dr. Md. Mostafa Ali, Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology
Dr. Zahidul Islam, Alberta Environment and Parks (Presenter)
Brahmaputra River Basin (BRB) is one of the largest basins among Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) river system carrying enormous volume of water through Bangladesh. The response of BRB due to potential climate changes is one of the key issues to be investigated due to its socio-economic and environmental vulnerability. A semi-distributed physically based hydrological model of the BRB has been developed using the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The model has been calibrated and validated for the streamflow measured at the Bahadurabad station of the main stem Brahmaputra for the climate normal period (1981 to 2010). Then, the impact of climate change on water availability has been assessed by applying different climate change scenarios of selected General Circulation Models (GCMs) of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The selection of GCMs was based on the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) scenarios for the 21st century. The high resolution spatial distribution of temperature and precipitation of these GCMs were generated using the pattern scaling technique in order to apply them into the hydrological model. Model results subsequently provided the projected trends of average annual and seasonal streamflow of BRB for the three climate change periods of 21st century, viz. as 2010-2039 (2020s), 2040-2069 (2050s), and 2070-2099 (2080s). The present hydrological model provides an opportunity for further development to be undertaken.