2019 CSCE Annual Conference - Laval (Greater Montreal)

2019 CSCE Annual Conference - Laval (Greater Montreal) Conference


Title
THE USE OF RELIABILITY ANALYSIS IN THE BID DECISION-MAKING PROCESS

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Author(s)
Dr. Farzad Ghodoosi , Concordia University (Presenter)
Dr. M. Reza Hosseini, Deakin University
Dr. Ashutosh Bagchi, Concordia University, Canada
Abstract

Generally, bid offers are prepared based on the contractors’ intuition and experience. In this process, quantification of risk elements influence bid pricing and their corresponding impact is being done within a non-systematic approach. Client’s reputation or the record of the projects owned by the client has a vital contribution on the issue. In this study, using reliability analysis, a practical quantitative framework is developed which enables contractors make informed bid/no-bid decisions based on estimating the probabilities of the schedule and cost overruns. Thereafter, the expected value of those risk elements are estimated to calculate a reasonable bid price. The developed risk model is here adopted in estimating the bid price for the construction of a low-rise university building based on the empirical data obtained from 40 similar projects already owned by the client. The contribution of this study is to develop a cost-effective, simple and rapid method applicable in bid decision-making processes.